How old will we be? Over 100 years old in the European Union and in Spain

As we know, ageing is a global phenomenon, which affects the different regions of the world differently. We already know that in Spain and Europe, the population is ageing and that there is a greater proportion of older people. We also know that the demographic profile of the population has changed not only because we live longer, but also because we have fewer children (which is closely related to the lack of policies to support families and to reconcile work and family, among other issues). The demographic profile of the country and issues such as ageing or average age are also influenced by migration patterns (who comes, who leaves). As a large part of our policies are directly affected and intertwine with the situation in the European Union, we are going to reflect on the ageing of our neighbours and of the Union as a whole, in order to be able to dimension the phenomenon of ageing. In addition, we are going to focus on the highest part of the pyramid, this stage of life that seemed impossible to reach some time ago: more than 100 years ago. 

To give an idea of the demographic situation in the European Union, 19% of its population in 2018 was over 65 years of age. This meant that, in 2018, 101 million Europeans were over the age of 65, and population projections indicate that they will be 149 million by 2050. 

Why talk about Europe and the European Union when we are trying to understand the situation of ageing in Spain? Very briefly, let us remember: Spain has been part of the European Union (formerly called the European Economic Community or EEC) since 1 January 1986. In 1993 this EEC, which was an economic union created by the Treaty of Rome in 1957, was renamed the European Community (EC) and in 2009, through the Treaty of Lisbon, it was merged into what is now known as the European Union. Of course there are many connotations that I leave by the way and for some people this will be an excessive simplification, but it serves to introduce that the EU is an economic and political association conformed by 28 countries (at the moment) one of which is Spain. In addition to having a common flag and a common currency, we also have a number of common policies and a single market, and among other things, the EU shares responsibility with countries for employment policies and social affairs. Other matters are left to the discretion of each country, but they can be pronounced or give indications in those matters that are related to certain areas, highlighting labour and migratory issues. As we know, labour and social issues are strongly related to the demographic structure of each country.

At the demographic level, the EU is made up of 512.4 million people, which is expected to increase to 525 million by 2044, after which time projections indicate that the population will decrease drastically. Again: red card on the need for support policies to be able to have children in Spain. But since I have the space here, it will also be important that we can have them without raising them in situations of risk of poverty. But this is another issue. 

Returning to projections and old age, the population over 65 in the EU, we said, is 101 million and is expected to increase to 149 million in 2050. It is estimated that the number of people aged 85 and over will rise from 13.8 million in 2018 to 31.8 million in 2050. For its part, the number of people aged 100 or over will go from around 106,000 in 2018 to more than half a million in 2050! 

In other words, the relative importance of older people in the pyramid will increase, but this centenary phenomenon is undoubtedly a phenomenon that continues to surprise and which is also very recent. How many people over 100 years old will there be in the European Union; will they be distributed in the same percentage way in Europe or will there be countries with clear differences; and in Spain, how many centenarians will we have in Spain in a few years? In order to answer these questions we are going to analyse the demographic projection data provided by Eurostat. 

Firstly, the numerical expectation of people over 100 in the Union as a whole is as follows: 

Graphic: Projections of population over 100 years old in the European Union:

Source: own preparation for CENIE (Ageing in Society) based on Eurostat data.

Numerically, and logically, there will be a greater number in those more populated countries, although obviously other issues such as life expectancy itself will influence. Thus, for 2110, Germany (278,574 persons out of 100+), the United Kingdom (with 277,040 persons over 100 years of age, whether part of the EU or not at that time) and France (268,487) top this list. Fourthly, Italy (205,812 over 100 years are expected by 2100) and fifthly, with 202,495 centenarians, we will have Spain. Portugal is in the thirteenth position, with 35,589 over 100 years. Percentages speak of very low rates, less than 1% of the population, but it is interesting to see how they are distributed by country with respect to the total expected population of each of them: 

Graphic: Projections of the percentage of people over 100 years of age in relation to the total population. European Union, 2100.

Source: own preparation for CENIE (Ageing in Society) based on Eurostat data.

With respect to the population of each country, we move between 0.55% of over 100s in Greece and 0.24% in Latvia. Spain is in ninth place (0.43% of its population will be centenary in 2100) and Portugal will be in second place, with 0.54% over 100 years old. 

Finally, we are going to see how the evolution of these over 100s in Spain is planned. 

Graph: Projections of the percentage of over 100s in relation to the total population. Spain, 2100.

Source: own preparation for CENIE (Ageing in Society) based on Eurostat data.

Undoubtedly, from here we have more information to understand other phenomena that we have to analyze, such as the problems of associating the collection of the pension with life expectancy, but, in addition, it helps us to prepare not only for the old age to come, but for what old age to come. Will we be prepared?